Duration: 01. 10. 2022 – 30. 09. 2025
Project title: Modeling of international migrant flows in the Balkans
Project acronym: MIG@B
Project coordinator: University of Maribor, Faculty of Security Sciences, Assoc. prof. dr. Igor Bernik
Project managers at FIŠ: Assoc. prof. dr. Blaž Rodič
Type of project: Developmental – research project
Brief description of the project:
Political developments in the European Union since 2015 were largely marked by the refugee or migrant crisis.
A characteristic of migrant flows to the EU since 2015 was unpredictability: the emergence of the “Balkan route” has led to the first encounter of unprepared countries between Greece and Austria with a large number of migrants. Countries on the Balkan route thus frequently changed their approach, regulations, and measures to tackle the refugee crisis. Uncoordinated and inadequate action by the EU Member States led to several situations, which were or still are a threat to public safety, health of migrants and local residents. Inadequate informing of population has contributed to the growing discontent of parts of population over the arrival of migrants, the rise of hate speech and increased support for extreme right-wing political parties and movements. Modelling the rapidly changing dynamics of migrant flows in the EU and its surroundings would allow understanding of the processes of formation of new migrant routes, potential humanitarian emergencies and other unforeseen phenomena, requires a multidisciplinary approach and an integration of all relevant influential factors in the migrant decisions and integration of multiple modelling methods.
The objective of the proposed research is to develop a model that will provide an understanding of processes in migrant flows and enable the identification of potential new phenomena in the dynamics of migration for researchers and stakeholders in the management of migration processes in the EU. Previous research in the field of migration has identified a number of rules and factors affecting individual decisions on migration and the choice of target countries.
The developed model will allow the simulation of migration flows and prediction of the effects of potential measures and policy changes in the field of migration. The planned model will facilitate understanding of the dynamics of migrant flows and the development of new theories in the field of migration.
The project is financed by:
